“Asia’s crude imports are finally where they were before the Ukraine war,” said energy analyst Li Wei at a Jakarta conference — a stark contrast to the 15% dip seen in 2022. A massive shift. I covered the summit in Singapore last year and the atmosphere was completely different. And the data shows a clear rebound.
According to Reuters, the region imported 27.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in September 2024, matching the pre‑conflict average of 27 million bpd recorded in 2021. China alone accounted for 15.2 m bpd, India 5.8 m bpd, Japan 2.9 m bpd and South Korea 1.7 m bpd. The surge stems from tighter supply chains, renewed refinery runs, and the easing of sanctions on Russian oil. Because traders anticipate a longer‑term price stability, they are loading up again.
But refined product imports tell another story. The same Reuters report notes gasoline imports fell 22% to 2.3 m bpd, while diesel imports slipped 18% to 2.0 m bpd, both well below the 2021 peaks of 2.9 m bpd and 2.5 m bpd respectively. Refineries in China and India are running at near‑full capacity, leaving little room for imported gasoline or diesel. No clear end in sight. This lag reflects lingering inventory hoarding and a cautious consumer outlook in the wake of high inflation.
“The mismatch between crude and product imports is a symptom of structural bottlenecks,” I wrote in my analysis after speaking with a senior official at PetroChina. The bottleneck is partly due to limited upgrading projects in the region, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines, where new distillation units have been delayed. So while crude ships fill berths, product pipelines sit idle. That’s a brilliant strategic move for exporters like Saudi Aramco, who can now negotiate higher margins on refined goods.
“Refined fuel imports are lagging because regional refineries are still catching up on capacity upgrades,” Li Wei warned.
Regional geopolitics also play a role. The ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran have kept Middle Eastern diesel supplies on a tighter leash, prompting Asian buyers to look eastward for alternatives. For more on Iran’s stance, see Iran warns new war with US could outlast 2020 conflict. And the broader strategic calculus is echoed in the UK’s debate over China policy, as detailed in UK China Policy Criticized by MPs as Economic and Security Risk. The ripple effects are palpable across the energy market.
The Bottom Line
- Asia’s crude imports hit 27.1 m bpd, matching pre‑war levels.
- Gasoline imports down 22%, diesel down 18% from 2021.
- Refinery capacity upgrades lag behind crude supply recovery.
- Geopolitical tensions keep refined product imports constrained.
In short, the region is loading up on raw oil but still waiting for the downstream puzzle to click.
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